Agentic Commerce Is Coming for Retail — and the Store Isn't Dead Yet

The numbers are hard to ignore. Agentic commerce — where AI systems actively participate in, or even autonomously complete, purchasing decisions on behalf of consumers — could account for as much as $1 trillion in U.S. business-to-consumer retail revenue by 2030, according to a landmark joint report released on April 27, 2026, by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and McKinsey & Company.

The finding signals that AI is no longer simply an enhancement to the shopping journey — it is rapidly becoming the journey itself.

Consumers Are Already Leaning In

The data on consumer adoption is striking. According to the ICSC-McKinsey report, 68% of U.S. consumers used at least one AI tool in the past three months as part of their shopping activity. And nearly two-thirds — 62% — said they have turned to AI to compare brands, models, prices, or reviews. The behavior is now mainstream, not experimental.

A parallel survey by Harris Poll and Quad reinforces the trend: more than 60% of consumers say they prefer shopping with AI-powered tools. Yet the same respondents expressed a conflicting concern — a significant majority worry that algorithm-driven pricing may not always surface the best deal. Trust, it appears, remains a work in progress.

A 2025 YouGov survey found that 41% of consumers reported having no trust at all in AI shopping assistants — a figure that should prompt retailers to think carefully about transparency, explainability, and human oversight in their AI deployments.

The Physical Store Isn't Going Anywhere — But It Must Evolve

Perhaps the most counterintuitive finding in the report is the enduring — and in some ways strengthening — role of physical retail. Nearly 40% of Gen Z and millennial respondents expressed a preference for experiential retail, citing discovery and social connection as primary draws to brick-and-mortar locations. The implication: younger consumers are not abandoning stores; they are redefining what they expect from them.

This creates a structural opportunity for physical retail environments that invest in experience over transaction. As Colleen Baum, Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company, put it in a statement accompanying the report:

"AI isn't eliminating the store — it's raising the bar for what it needs to deliver. As more of the shopping journey moves upstream, the stores that win will be those with a clearly defined role — whether enabling speed and certainty or creating experiences worth the trip."

Early Movers Are Already Proving the Case

Several U.S. retailers are not waiting for the market to catch up. The Vitamin Shoppe recently opened its first AI-enabled Innovation Store in New York City, deploying its "Shoppe Advisor" tool to provide shoppers with personalized product guidance and real-time inventory visibility directly on the shop floor.

Meanwhile, Tecovas, the Western boot brand, has integrated AI into its inventory replenishment and in-store allocation workflow. The result: documented real-time sales increases of 9.6% when AI-assisted management replaced manual processes — a number that will command attention in any boardroom.

Strategic Investment, Not Optional Experimentation

The ICSC-McKinsey report frames the moment as one requiring deliberate, disciplined investment rather than ad-hoc adoption. Tom McGee, President and CEO of ICSC, stated:

"As AI transforms the shopping journey and customer expectations remain sky-high, retailers and CRE leaders will need to make disciplined, intentional investments that ensure every store in their portfolio is aligned to a clear strategic purpose — or risk missing out on growing spending power."

The message for retail leadership is unambiguous: the organizations that define a clear strategic role for AI — and align their physical and digital real estate accordingly — will be positioned to capture an outsized share of a rapidly expanding market. Those that treat AI as a side initiative may find themselves structurally disadvantaged before the decade is out.

Source: ICSC and McKinsey & Company, "Agentic Commerce Report," April 27, 2026, as reported by Howard Ruben, Payments Dive, May 7, 2026. Additional data from Harris Poll/Quad and YouGov surveys referenced therein.